白酒估值跌至十年低位，高盛研报：最坏时刻已过

近日，高盛发布了一份关于中国白酒行业的最新专题研究报告，在业内引发广泛关注。

这份报告最核心的判断是：中国白酒行业最艰难的去库存阶段已经过去，行业正处于“复苏极早期阶段，但已出现企稳信号”。

值得注意的是，自2025年7月10日高盛下调白酒板块评级以来，中证白酒指数累计下跌约30%，跑输MSCI必需消费品指数约12个百分点。板块年初至今平均下跌约27%，目前以2026年预期市盈率19倍、2027年预期市盈率16倍成交，与2015年初复苏阶段估值相当，P/E及P/B均处于近十年低位。

从悲观到审慎乐观，研报判断的这一次转身，释放了什么信号？

从“下调”到“上调”

2025年7月，高盛下调白酒板块评级时，主要担忧三点：反腐政策带来的影响、全行业去库存风险、以及宏观环境疲软导致的需求复苏缓慢。彼时，市场情绪处于冰点。

不到一年时间，高盛的态度发生了实质性转变——于6月23日将古井贡酒从“卖出”上调至“买入”，将今世缘从“中性”上调至“买入”，12个月目标价分别设定为105元和31元，对应约28%的上行空间。同时维持贵州茅台为板块首选，但对五粮液、水井坊和洋河继续持谨慎立场。

高盛分析师在报告中指出，两家区域性酒企的资产负债表已率先出现改善迹象，当前估值处于历史周期底部，风险收益比趋于吸引。

不过，高盛也并非全面乐观。报告同步下调了多数白酒标的2026-28年盈利预测——超高端（茅台除外）净利润预测最多下调10%，中高端最多下调52%，并将部分标的目标市盈率压缩4%至19倍。这反映出高盛对行业长期市场容量结构性收缩的判断——预计行业销量到2030年前将仅能恢复至2024年水平的约75%。

在酒业时报看来，高盛的这次态度逆转，并非简单的“空翻多”，而是一次基于基本面边际变化的精细化修正——承认长期结构性问题仍在，但认为周期性底部已经探明。

为什么说“最坏时刻已过”

高盛将当前白酒行业定性为“复苏极早期阶段，但已出现企稳信号”，并从四个维度加以支撑。

信号一：供应端加速出清

今年供给端削减动作明显提速——小型酒企陆续退出，大型品牌也开始暂停资本开支计划，包括水井坊在内。行业供给过剩的局面正在收敛。高盛的宏观仪表盘模型显示，超高端与中高端白酒销售同比降幅自2026年一季度起持续收窄，低点或已出现在2025年四季度。

信号二：批发价格广泛企稳

自2025年底至2026年上半年，飞天茅台及关键中高端品种批发价格已呈现广泛企稳趋势，包括今世缘、古井贡酒及珍酒李渡旗下产品。这一变化发生在渠道经历约三至四个季度（自2025年二至三季度起）加速去库存之后。

尤其值得关注的是飞天茅台的性价比指标——其批发价格占城镇职工月均工资的比例，已由2021年的近60%高位回落至目前的约28%，甚至低于2013年的水平。高端白酒的性价比已得到明显改善。高盛进一步指出，超高端白酒的销售增速与一、二线城市二手房价格历史上存在正相关关系，预计部分一、二线城市楼市的预期回暖将为高端品种提供额外支撑。

信号三：现金流重返复苏轨道

2026年一季度，超高端和次高端白酒经计算调整后的销售增长及库存水平均出现反弹，表明经销商订单与进货势头已显现复苏的初步迹象。2026年一季度超高端白酒经营性现金流/营收比值小幅抬升，次高端白酒该项指标同样实现回升——2025年四季度该数值为负。高盛预计，2027年多数白酒企业经营性现金流增速将伴随利润率修复，实现环比改善。

信号四：资本支出周期有望托举需求与估值

高盛维持对资本开支回升周期的关注——历史数据显示，白酒板块估值与销售增速在基础设施投资上行周期中具有明显正相关性。受“六张网”投资及相关支出（尤其是江苏、安徽地区）推动，下半年固定资产投资有望重新加速。

不过高盛也提醒，此轮资本开支周期对白酒商务宴请需求的提振效应，预计将弱于此前以房地产为主导的周期。同时，2026年上半年固定资产投资受极端天气、政府债券发行节奏偏慢影响，走势存在波动。

多家机构发出相近判断

高盛的判断并非孤例。2026年多家券商和行业机构发布研报，对白酒行业的判断趋于一致。

华创证券近日发布研报称，端午白酒动销局部拐点初显，下半年低基数下更多酒企动销及报表有望转正。华创证券认为，2026年酒企从被动应对进入主动调整，机会在于茅台批价回落并企稳之后，预期筑底企稳。

浙商证券发布研报称，基于大众消费仍表现积极、商务消费逐步修复，2026年白酒板块业绩有望从二季度开始由负转正，进入底部拐点区间。板块筑底明确，开始有少量公司提前走出调整期。

招商证券也指出，2025年四季度单季度收入同比-30%为本轮调整最深单季，2026年一季度收入与利润降幅已开始收敛，行业走出至暗时刻。

中信证券则看好白酒行业底部配置机会，认为板块市盈率处于中长期历史底部区间，已反应较多中长期悲观预期。

不过，中国酒业协会联合毕马威中国发布的《2026中国白酒市场中期研究报告》显示，行业仍在经历典型的“量价利三杀”，超86%调研企业利润率下降，68.5%受访企业预期下半年继续下行调整。这说明行业共识是“底部已近”，但全面复苏仍需时日。

历史的镜子：2015年的相似与不同

回顾上一个白酒行业周期，高盛在2014年至2015年间也经历过类似的判断转变。

2014年初，高盛高华证券认为白酒市场调整已接近尾声，行业状况并未进一步恶化。到2015年，高盛指出白酒行业复苏缓慢但持续，其覆盖范围内公司2015年前9个月收入平均增长6%，净利润平均增长5.3%，远高于2014年全年的-10.9%和-16.9%。

对比两轮周期，相似之处在于：估值均处于历史低位、供给端出清加速、渠道库存趋于健康。不同之处在于：本轮周期面临更为复杂的宏观环境，商务需求复苏力度弱于上一轮，而行业长期市场容量面临结构性收缩。高盛预计，到2030年白酒潜在市场规模将回落至2024年销量的75%左右。

对于2027年，高盛给出了具体预测：超高端和次高端白酒销售额增速分别为7%和6%，盈利增速为7%和11%。

在酒业时报看来，当前白酒行业正处于一个微妙的时间窗口——最坏的时刻大概率已经过去，但最好的时刻远未到来。对于投资者和从业者而言，与其纠结于“什么时候见底”，不如关注那些资产负债表率先改善、区域需求率先回暖的标的。正如高盛所说，企业财务报表的改善通常是周期中最后一个出现的信号——当报表全面改善时，股价可能早已不再便宜。

高盛在报告中还特别强调了一个方法论层面的判断：从行业周期规律来看，企业财务报表的改善通常是最后一个出现的信号，当前正处于渠道库存健康化、批发价格企稳向需求回暖和股价修复过渡的关键节点。这或许是对当前白酒行业最精准的周期定位。

Goldman Sachs has released a comprehensive research report on China’s baijiu sector that has drawn significant attention across the industry. The report’s central thesis: the most grueling destocking phase for China’s baijiu industry is behind us, and the sector now sits at an “extremely early stage of recovery, though stabilization signals have emerged.”

From Downgrade to Upgrade

On July 10, 2025, Goldman Sachs downgraded the baijiu sector. At the time, the firm cited three primary concerns: the impact of anti-corruption policies, sector-wide destocking risks, and sluggish demand recovery amid a weak macro environment. Market sentiment was at rock bottom.

Less than a year later, Goldman Sachs has executed a substantive about-face. On June 23, the firm upgraded Gujing Gongjiu from Sell to Buy and Jinshiyuan from Neutral to Buy, setting 12-month price targets of RMB 105 and RMB 31 respectively — implying approximately 28% upside. Meanwhile, Goldman maintained Kweichow Moutai as its top sector pick, while retaining a cautious stance on Wuliangye, Swellfun, and Yanghe.

In the report, Goldman analysts noted that the balance sheets of these two regional players have shown early improvement, with valuations at historical cycle troughs and risk-reward profiles turning increasingly attractive.

That said, Goldman is not uniformly bullish. The report simultaneously revised down earnings forecasts for most baijiu names for 2026-2028 — cutting ultra-premium (ex-Moutai) net profit projections by up to 10%, and mid-to-high-tier names by as much as 52%. Target P/E multiples for certain names were compressed by 4% to 19x, reflecting the firm’s view that the industry’s long-term addressable market faces structural contraction — with industry sales volume expected to recover to only about 75% of 2024 levels by 2030.

In the view of Jiuye Times, Goldman’s reversal is not simply a “bear-to-bull” pivot, but rather a calibrated refinement based on marginal improvements in fundamentals — acknowledging that long-term structural headwinds persist, while recognizing that the cyclical bottom has likely been identified.

Why the “Worst Is Over”

Goldman characterizes the current baijiu sector as being in an “extremely early stage of recovery, with stabilization signals emerging,” supported by four key indicators.

Signal One: Accelerating Supply-Side Cleanout

Supply-side reductions have visibly accelerated this year — small players are exiting, and major brands have begun halting capital expenditure plans, including Swellfun. The industry’s supply glut is gradually being absorbed. Goldman’s macro dashboard model shows that year-on-year declines in ultra-premium and mid-to-high-tier baijiu sales have been narrowing since Q1 2026, with the trough likely having occurred in Q4 2025.

Signal Two: Broad-Based Wholesale Price Stabilization

From late 2025 through the first half of 2026, wholesale prices for Feitian Moutai and key mid-to-high-tier brands have shown broad-based stabilization — including products from Jinshiyuan, Gujing Gongjiu, and Zhenjiu Lidu. This stabilization follows roughly three to four quarters of accelerated destocking across channels (from Q2-Q3 2025).

Particularly noteworthy is Feitian Moutai’s affordability metric — its wholesale price as a percentage of average monthly urban wages has fallen from nearly 60% in 2021 to approximately 28% today, dipping even below 2013 levels. The value proposition for premium baijiu has improved markedly.

Goldman further notes that ultra-premium baijiu sales growth has historically exhibited a positive correlation with second-hand home prices in first- and second-tier cities, and anticipates that an expected recovery in certain Tier 1-2 city property markets could provide additional support for premium varieties.

Signal Three: Cash Flow Returns to Recovery Trajectory

In Q1 2026, both adjusted sales growth and inventory levels for ultra-premium and sub-premium baijiu rebounded, signaling early signs of recovery in distributor orders and restocking momentum. The operating cash flow-to-revenue ratio for ultra-premium baijiu edged higher in Q1 2026, while the same metric for sub-premium names also recovered from negative territory in Q4 2025. Goldman expects that by 2027, operating cash flow growth for most baijiu companies will improve sequentially alongside margin recovery.

Signal Four: Capex Cycle Poised to Support Demand and Valuations

Goldman maintains its focus on the capex回升 cycle — historical data shows a clear positive correlation between baijiu sector valuations and sales growth during infrastructure investment upcycles. Driven by “Six Networks” infrastructure investments and related spending (particularly in Jiangsu and Anhui provinces), fixed asset investment is expected to re-accelerate in the second half of the year. However, Goldman cautions that the boost to baijiu business banquet demand from this capex cycle is expected to be weaker than prior cycles led by real estate.

A Chorus of Similar Views

Goldman’s assessment is far from isolated. In 2026, multiple brokerages and industry research institutions have published reports converging on similar conclusions regarding the baijiu sector.

China Securities recently noted that the Dragon Boat Festival sales inflection point is emerging locally, with more companies expected to see sales and reported results turn positive in the second half of the year on a low base. Zheshang Securities projected that sector earnings could turn from negative to positive starting in Q2 2026, entering a trough inflection range, supported by resilient mass consumption and gradual recovery in business spending. China Merchants Securities pointed out that the Q4 2025 single-quarter revenue decline of -30% year-on-year marked the deepest quarter of this adjustment cycle, with revenue and profit declines already narrowing in Q1 2026 — the industry has emerged from its darkest moment. CITIC Securities expressed optimism on the baijiu sector’s trough allocation opportunity, noting that sector P/E sits at historical lows and has already priced in much of the medium-to-long-term negative expectations.

That said, the 2026 Mid-Year China Baijiu Market Research Report, jointly published by the China Alcoholic Drinks Association and KPMG China, shows that the industry is still experiencing a classic “triple whammy” of declining volume, price, and profit — with over 86% of surveyed enterprises reporting margin compression, and 68.5% expecting continued downward adjustment in the second half of the year. This suggests industry consensus is that “the bottom is near,” but a full recovery will take time.

Lessons from History: 2015 — Similarities and Differences

Looking back at the previous baijiu cycle, Goldman Sachs underwent a similar judgment shift between 2014 and 2015. In early 2014, Goldman Sachs Gao Hua Securities believed the baijiu market adjustment was nearing its end, with industry conditions no longer deteriorating further. By 2015, Goldman noted that the baijiu sector was recovering slowly but steadily — with covered companies posting average revenue growth of 6% and net profit growth of 5.3% in the first nine months of 2015, far exceeding the full-year 2014 figures of -10.9% and -16.9%.

Comparing the two cycles, the similarities are clear: valuations at historical lows, accelerating supply-side cleanout, and channel inventories trending toward healthy levels. The differences are equally stark: this cycle faces a more complex macro environment, weaker business demand recovery than the previous cycle, and structural contraction in the industry’s long-term addressable market. Goldman expects the baijiu total addressable market to shrink to roughly 75% of 2024 sales volume by 2030.

For 2027, Goldman offers specific forecasts: ultra-premium and sub-premium baijiu sales growth of 7% and 6% respectively, with earnings growth of 7% and 11%.

A Delicate Window

In the view of Jiuye Times, the baijiu sector currently sits in a delicate window — the worst is likely behind us, but the best is far from here. For investors and industry participants, rather than obsessing over “when the bottom will arrive,” the wiser approach is to focus on names where balance sheets are showing early improvement and regional demand is leading the recovery.

As Goldman itself emphasizes, improvements in corporate financial statements are typically the last signal to emerge in a cycle — by the time the numbers look uniformly strong, the stock prices are likely no longer cheap. Goldman’s report notably highlights a methodological insight: “From the perspective of industry cycle dynamics, improvements in corporate financial statements are typically the last signal to emerge. The sector is currently at a critical juncture transitioning from channel inventory normalization and wholesale price stabilization toward demand recovery and share price repair”. This may well be the most precise characterization of the current baijiu cycle.