白酒经销商都在焦虑选品，焦虑趋势，焦虑下一个增长点在哪。其实答案不在未来，在历史里。日本经济停滞的三十年，恰好给我们提供了一面清晰的镜子——那些穿越周期的品牌，做对了什么？今天的白酒市场正在同步上演同样的剧本。
作者：春明
2025年，白酒行业交出了一份并不好看的成绩单：产量、营收下滑，行业平均存货周转天数保持高位，不少企业产品价格倒挂。渠道库存高企、价格体系承压、终端动销疲软。
经销商们比谁都更早感受到寒意——货压在仓库，钱转不动，选品越来越难。
但如果你把目光投向另一个市场，会看到一个完全不同的故事。
日本失去的三十年，藏着选品答案
1990年，日本泡沫经济崩溃。此后三十年，GDP几乎停滞、房价腰斩、失业率飙升。按常理，消费市场应该一片哀嚎。但恰恰在这段时间里，一批品牌和产品反而越做越强。
无糖茶连续增长了三十年。功能性酸奶人均消费翻了近三倍。优衣库从区域小店变成全球服装巨头。7-Eleven靠着日常小确幸越开越多。大创，一家卖100日元商品的杂货店，做到了30%以上的毛利率。
经济那么差，为什么这些产品反而越卖越好？
一个容易被直觉误导的判断是：消费下行了，就该卖便宜货。听起来有道理，但日本三十年的真实经历告诉我们，这个逻辑只说对了一半。
啤酒整体消费在下滑，消费者没有戒酒，他们只是把280日元一罐的普通啤酒换成了200日元的发泡酒——品类没消失，只是换了个价格带。但同一时期，明治推出的功能酸奶主打增强免疫力，价格比普通酸奶贵将近一倍。结果呢？日本人均酸奶消费从4000日元涨到了14000日元，涨了近三倍。
便宜和贵，在同一个市场里同时成立。
这不是周期，这是底层逻辑的重写。今天的中国白酒行业，正在经历一模一样的事情。
消费逻辑发生了根本性迁移
白酒行业过去二十年的增长，建立在一条清晰的轨道上：厂家生产什么，经销商代理什么，消费者就买什么。品牌够大、利润够厚、政策够好——这套选品逻辑屡试不爽。
但这条轨道正在消失。
尼尔森调研数据显示，家庭聚饮与自饮场景占比已升至62%，商务宴请场景则锐减三成。艾媒咨询的数据同样印证了这一趋势：朋友相聚（45.69%）和家庭聚会（40.06%）已超越商务宴请（38.49%），成为白酒消费的主流场景。消费正从”崇尚高度浓烈”转向”重视品质舒适”。
用消费心理学来解释，这叫“决策锚点迁移“。
在供给主导时代，消费者的决策锚点是“可得性”——货架上有啥就买啥。而在消费者主权时代，锚点变成了”值得性”——这个东西值不值得我掏钱。丹尼尔·卡尼曼的前景理论指出，人们做决策时不是对绝对量做评估，而是对”参照点”做比较。当消费者的参照点从”别人喝什么”转向”我需不需要”，整个购买逻辑就被重写了。
这不是一次周期性调整。这是权力从生产者向消费者转移的范式转换。
日本消费三十年，两条规律证明了一切
日本三十年穿越周期的品类，背后站着的消费者心理其实就两条。
第一条逻辑：对“自己好”的产品，消费者永远愿意投资。
无糖茶为什么能增长三十年？因为健康是人类的永恒刚需，经济越不确定，人们对自己身体的掌控欲就越强烈。伊藤园做无糖茶，不是在卖饮料，是在卖“喝了对身体好”这件事。明治的功能酸奶也一样，消费者买的不是一杯奶，是”每天喝少去一次医院”的心理账户充值。
这类产品的本质，是消费者在进行“健康储蓄”——花今天的钱，买明天的安全感。投资不会因为经济变差而停止，只会因为不确定性增加而被强化。这解释了为什么在消费整体收缩的年代，保健食品、功能性饮料、无糖茶饮反而全线增长。
从消费心理学的角度看，这可以用“预防性消费动机”来解释。当人们对未来感到不确定时，会本能地增加对“维持现状”和”保护自身”的投入。这不是在消费，这是在购买一种”我能掌控自己的生活”的心理暗示。经济下行反而会放大这种动机。
第二条逻辑：让消费者觉得“对自己公平”的产品，永远不会被抛弃。
日本7-Eleven的创始人铃木敏文有一个精妙的观察：经济越差，人越需要用一件小事来善待自己。在日本经济最难的年代，7-Eleven推出了一款高端饭团，价格是行业均价的1.6倍。所有人觉得这时候卖贵的必死无疑，结果大卖。
原因很朴素——白天省吃俭用、职场压力巨大，人需要一个情绪泄压阀。一顿稍微好一点的饭、一件让自己开心的小东西，给今天的自己一个交代。这不是奢侈消费，这是”心理补偿机制”在起作用。
日本的宠物消费、露营装备、动漫周边市场到今天已达3.5万亿日元的规模，比很多传统快消品类还大。背后都是同一个逻辑：在”大事”上不得不省，就要在”小事”上找回掌控感和体面感。
这类产品卖的不是功能，卖的是“我被生活亏待了，但我配得上这一点点好”的情绪价值。
用消费心理学的“自我决定理论”来解释：人类有三种基本心理需求——自主感、胜任感和归属感。当宏观经济环境剥夺了人们对生活的掌控感（自主感受损），消费者会通过购买那些”自己说了算”的小确幸来补偿。一杯好酒、一顿好饭——这些消费的决策权100%在自己手里，买的是”我还能为自己做决定”的心理确认。
这两条逻辑合在一起，形成了一个清晰的选品判断框架：这个产品是帮消费者投资自己，还是帮消费者补偿自己？只要符合其中一条，它就有穿越周期的基础。两条都不沾——既没有健康价值，也没有情绪价值，只靠品牌知名度和渠道铺货撑着——在经济下行期会被消费者悄悄抛弃。
因为消费者开始重新算账：这个东西我真的需要吗？它凭什么值得我掏出这笔钱？答不上来，就没有续命的理由。
白酒市场正在同步上演这些规律
这些规律，今天的白酒市场正在同步上演。
光瓶酒的爆发是最典型的信号。
光瓶酒市场规模从2013年的352亿元增长至2024年的1500亿元，2025年预计突破2000亿元，50至100元”高线光瓶”增速超过40%。光良酒在2024年行业大盘承压的情况下，销售额依旧保持了30%的同比增长，累计卖出4亿瓶，终端覆盖超100万家。
它的逻辑很简单——把三年粮食基酒含量直接写在瓶身上，让消费者一眼看懂”这瓶酒值不值这个价”。卖的不是便宜，是”透明”和”公平”，踩中的正是第二条逻辑。
低度酒的崛起同样不容忽视。
2025年低度酒市场规模预计突破740亿元，年复合增长率达25%，是白酒行业整体增速的5倍。江小白母公司转型”瓶子星球”后，2025年1至7月销售收入同比增长25%，连续19个月稳健增长，核心单品果立方增长80%。
年轻人要的是”悦己”——独处时的小酌、朋友间的微醺、不用拼酒的放松。这是典型的第一条逻辑——对自己好。
“小酒馆+”模式的迭代，踩中的是情感修复的补偿逻辑。
唐三两打酒铺主打全品类散酒+社区化渗透，2025年3月完成近千万元天使轮融资，门店已覆盖成都、重庆、广州等城市。鲜啤福鹿家2025年全年新签门店1607家，总门店达1808家，覆盖全国300多座城市，6至10元一杯把精酿拉回”日常口粮”。
唐三两卖的是”家楼下的烟火气，微醺里的小幸福”，鲜啤福鹿家给的是”6块钱的片刻放松”。跟日本7-Eleven那款贵了60%却大卖的高端饭团，本质上是同一个心理——大事上省了，要在小事上找回体面感。
传统名酒也在主动回应这两条逻辑。
从五粮液到汾酒，再到泸州老窖、古井贡酒，都推出“餐+酒”业态，将白酒从宴席拓展到”轻社交”体验场景。泸州老窖推出”百调”系列，主打低度、利口、多场景适用。舍得酒业与《中国国家地理》跨界联动，绑定”诗酒远方”的情绪价值。
数据显示，家庭自饮、露营独酌等轻量化场景的白酒消费占比从2020年的35%攀升至2025年的58%，首次超越传统社交场景总和。
这些不是偶然的热点，是日本已验证的品类规律在白酒市场重演。
用“自我一致性理论”来解释：当消费者把自己定义为”理性””健康””悦己”的人，光瓶酒的透明定价、低度酒的轻松体验、场景化消费的情绪价值，就与这种自我认知产生共振。这不是营销话术能解决的，是产品逻辑与消费心理的深层匹配。
经销商的选品逻辑，必须重写
过去经销商选品的核心指标是三个：品牌够不够大、利润空间够不够厚、厂家政策够不够好。这套逻辑在“渠道为王”的时代屡试不爽。但今天，除了飞天茅台之外，几乎所有白酒品牌都出现了不同程度的价格倒挂，差价红利模式正在崩塌。
新的选品逻辑，应该围绕一个核心问题展开：这个产品，消费者为什么觉得“值”？
基于对日本三十年经验和当下中国白酒市场的观察，我们为经销商提炼出五条选品原则：
第一条：看产品是否回应了消费者的“值得性”追问。
消费者现在买任何东西都会问三个问题：我真的需要它吗？它凭什么比别的贵？它能给我带来什么？如果产品答不上来，就没有续命的理由。光良酒用数据瓶回答了“凭什么”——成分透明，一目了然。低度酒用适口性和轻松感回答了”带来什么”——不是醉，是愉悦。
第二条：看产品是“主动购买型”还是”被动推动型”。
主动购买型的特征是：消费者会主动搜索、主动询问、主动复购。这类产品经济越差越稳。被动推动型依赖渠道推力——铺货、促销、压货——一旦推力减弱，动销立刻消失。在存量博弈时代，后者的生存空间正在急剧收窄。
第三条：看产品是否切中了“对自己好”或”对自己公平”两条逻辑中的至少一条。
光瓶酒切的是“公平”逻辑——去掉过度包装，把成本花在酒体上。低度酒和场景化产品切的是”对自己好”逻辑——少喝一点、喝得舒服一点、喝得开心一点。两条逻辑任占其一，就有穿越周期的基础。
第四条：看品牌方是否在持续迭代产品。
三得利的乌龙茶卖了四十多年，每隔两年就更新包装和口味。一个从不迭代的产品，迟早被消费者厌倦。消费者在变，场景在变，产品不跟着变就会被抛弃。那些在低度化、轻量化、场景化上持续投入的品牌，比躺在功劳簿上的品牌更值得关注。
第五条：看厂家是否在从“渠道思维”转向”消费者思维”。
这是最重要的一条，也是最容易被忽视的一条。过去厂家关心的是“压了多少货””开了多少经销商”；今天应该关心的是”开瓶率多少””复购率多少””消费者画像什么样”。汾酒在2025年全球经销商大会上明确提出，复兴纲领第二阶段聚焦”与消费者共创未来”。谷小酒通过AI数字化系统将C端消费数据共享给经销商，不压货、重动销。那些仍在用老思路做市场的品牌，即便今天还有声量，明天也可能被消费者悄悄抛弃。
日本失去的三十年，消费者从来没有停止花钱。他们只是停止为不值得的东西买单了。
中国白酒行业今天面对的问题，也不是消费萎缩——2025年低度酒市场要破740亿，光瓶酒要破2000亿，这些数字摆在那里。问题是，你的货盘里，有多少产品真正值得消费者选择？
行业调整不会在短期内结束。但对那些看懂了消费逻辑变化的经销商来说，这不是寒冬——这是一次洗牌，也是一次重新排座次的机会。
选品的逻辑已经重写了。先看懂的人，先上车。
（本文综合公开行业资讯整理）
引用来源：
[1] 环球网消费综合报道，产量九连降！白酒企业逆势砸金扩产，https://finance.sina.com.cn
[2] 同花顺财经，三季报显示白酒行业仍整体承压，https://stock.10jqka.com.cn
[3] 中华网，白酒必须直面，https://3g.china.com
[4] 中国财富网，消费场景的“破”与“立”，https://finance.china.com
[5] 36氪，光良酒赵小普：5年卖了4亿瓶白酒，我只是没有陷入聪明人的误区，https://m.36kr.com
[6] 东方财富网，逆势连增19个月，单品增80%，瓶子星球如何成为低度新酒饮的领跑者？，https://caifuhao.eastmoney.com
[7] 餐饮O2O，「唐三两打酒铺」完成近千万元天使轮融资，社区与极致性价比的新碰撞，https://www.canyin88.com
[8] 北京商报，蜜雪冰城2.97亿元收购鲜啤福鹿家53%股权，https://www.bbtnews.com.cn
[9] 中国财富网，白酒企业瞄准光瓶酒赛道 光瓶酒2025年市场规模有望突破2000亿元，https://finance.china.com.cn
[10] 东方财富网，中国酒业进入深度调整期，发展新趋势指向何方？，https://finance.eastmoney.com
[11] 华夏酒报，汾酒首开“老作坊酒馆”，https://www.cnwinenews.com
[12] 证券之星，泸州老窖：百调系列主要目标群体是年轻消费者，https://stock.stockstar.com
[13] 财经网，微醺TALK | 谷小酒刘飞：步入线下一年半覆盖超20万终端，AI赋能光瓶酒前3季增长超500%，https://m.caijing.com.cn
[14] 毕马威（KPMG）：2025中国白酒市场中期研究报告，https://d.drcnet.com.cn
[15] 中国财富网，频推低度酒 白酒企业拥抱“消费驱动”，https://finance.china.com.cn
Baijiu distributors are all anxious about product selection, anxious about trends, anxious about where the next growth point will come from. The answer, in fact, does not lie in the future – it lies in history. Japan’s three decades of economic stagnation provide us with a clear mirror: what did those brands that transcended market cycles do right? Today’s baijiu market is simultaneously playing out the same script.
Author: Chunming
In 2025, the baijiu industry delivered a rather unimpressive report card: declining production and revenue, persistently high average inventory turnover days, and price inversions across many enterprises. Channel inventories are elevated, pricing systems are under pressure, and terminal sell-through remains weak.
Distributors felt the chill earlier than anyone – goods stuck in warehouses, capital unable to move, product selection becoming increasingly difficult.
But if you shift your gaze to another market, you will see a completely different story.
Japan’s Lost Decades Hold the Answer to Product Selection
In 1990, Japan’s bubble economy collapsed. Over the following thirty years, GDP was virtually stagnant, real estate prices halved, and unemployment soared. By conventional logic, the consumer market should have been in despair. Yet precisely during this period, a number of brands and products actually grew stronger.
Unsweetened tea grew continuously for thirty years. Per capita consumption of functional yoghurt nearly tripled. Uniqlo transformed from a regional小店 into a global apparel giant. 7-Eleven expanded relentlessly through everyday small pleasures. Daiso – a general store selling 100-yen items – achieved gross margins of over 30%.
With the economy so weak, why did these products sell even better?
An easily misleading judgement is: when consumption declines, cheap goods should sell well. It sounds plausible, but Japan’s three decades of real experience tell us this logic is only half right.
Overall beer consumption declined, but consumers didn’t quit drinking – they simply swapped 280-yen regular beer for 200-yen happoshu (low-malt beer). The category didn’t disappear; it just shifted price points. But in the same period, Meiji launched a functional yoghurt主打 immunity-boosting, priced at nearly double the regular yoghurt. The result? Japan’s per capita yoghurt consumption rose from 4,000 yen to 14,000 yen – nearly a threefold increase.
Cheap and expensive coexisted in the same market.
This is not a cycle – this is a fundamental rewrite of the underlying logic. Today’s Chinese baijiu industry is undergoing the exact same phenomenon.
The Underlying Logic of Consumption Has Fundamentally Shifted
The baijiu industry’s growth over the past two decades was built on a clear track: whatever manufacturers produced and distributors represented, consumers bought. Big enough brand, thick enough margins, good enough policies – this product-selection logic never failed.
But this track is disappearing.
Nielsen research data shows that home drinking and self-consumption scenarios have risen to 62% of total consumption, while business banquet scenarios have sharply declined by 30%. iiMedia Research data confirms the same trend: gatherings with friends (45.69%) and family get-togethers (40.06%) have surpassed business banquets (38.49%) as the mainstream occasions for baijiu consumption. Consumption is shifting from “valuing high intensity and strong flavours” to “prioritising quality and comfort.”
In terms of consumer psychology, this is called “decision anchor migration.”
In the supply-driven era, consumers’ decision anchor was “availability” – buy whatever is on the shelf. In the consumer sovereignty era, the anchor has shifted to “worthiness” – is this worth my money? Daniel Kahneman’s prospect theory states that people do not evaluate absolute quantities when making decisions, but compare against “reference points.” When consumers’ reference point shifts from “what others drink” to “what I need,” the entire purchasing logic is rewritten.
This is not a cyclical adjustment. This is a paradigm shift in which power transfers from producers to consumers.
Japan’s Thirty Years of Consumption: Two Principles Explain Everything
Behind the categories that transcended Japan’s three-decade cycle stood just two consumer psychology principles.
First principle: consumers will always invest in products that are “good for themselves.”
Why did unsweetened tea grow for thirty years? Because health is a timeless human necessity – the more uncertain the economy, the stronger people’s desire to control their own bodies. Ito En wasn’t selling a beverage; it was selling “this is good for your health.” The same goes for Meiji’s functional yoghurt – consumers were not buying a cup of milk, but topping up the psychological account of “drink this every day to stay out of the hospital.”
The essence of such products is “health savings” – spending today’s money to buy tomorrow’s peace of mind. Investment doesn’t stop when the economy worsens; it only intensifies because of heightened uncertainty. This explains why, during periods of overall consumption contraction, health foods, functional beverages, and unsweetened teas all grew across the board.
From a consumer psychology perspective, this can be explained by “preventive consumption motivation.” When people feel uncertain about the future, they instinctively increase investment in “maintaining the status quo” and “protecting themselves.” This is not consumption – this is buying the psychological signal that “I can still control my own life.” Economic downturns actually amplify this motivation.
Second principle: products that make consumers feel “fair to me” will never be abandoned.
Toshifumi Suzuki, founder of Japan’s 7-Eleven, made a subtle observation: the worse the economy, the more people need a small thing to treat themselves well. During Japan’s toughest economic years, 7-Eleven launched a premium rice ball priced at 1.6 times the industry average. Everyone thought selling expensive items at such a time would be a failure – it sold out massively.
The reason is simple: after frugal days and immense workplace pressure, people need an emotional pressure-release valve. A slightly better meal, a small thing that brings joy – a way to give today’s self some satisfaction. This is not luxury consumption – this is the “psychological compensation mechanism” at work.
Japan’s pet consumption, camping equipment, and anime merchandise markets have today reached 3.5 trillion yen in scale – larger than many traditional FMCG categories. Behind them lies the same logic: when you have to save on the “big things,” you need to regain a sense of control and dignity on the “small things.”
These products don’t sell function – they sell the emotional value of “life has treated me unfairly, but I deserve this little bit of goodness.”
Explained through self-determination theory: humans have three basic psychological needs – autonomy, competence, and relatedness. When the macro environment deprives people of a sense of control (damaged autonomy), consumers compensate by purchasing small pleasures that are entirely “their own decision.” A good drink, a good meal – these purchases are 100% within their control, buying the psychological affirmation that “I can still make decisions for myself.”
These two principles together form a clear framework for product selection: does this product help consumers invest in themselves, or help them compensate themselves? As long as it satisfies one of these, it has the foundation to transcend cycles. If it meets neither – lacking both health value and emotional value, relying only on brand awareness and channel distribution – it will be quietly abandoned by consumers during economic downturns.
Because consumers start recalculating: do I really need this? Why does it deserve my money? If there’s no answer, there is no reason for it to survive.
The Baijiu Market Is Simultaneously Playing Out These Principles
These principles are now simultaneously unfolding in today’s baijiu market.
The explosion of bottled baijiu (guangping) is the most telling signal.
The bottled baijiu market grew from RMB 35.2 billion in 2013 to RMB 150 billion in 2024, and is projected to exceed RMB 200 billion in 2025, with the RMB 50–100 “premium bottled” segment growing over 40%. Guangliang Liquor, despite industry-wide pressure, maintained 30% year-on-year sales growth in 2024, having sold a cumulative 400 million bottles and reaching over 1 million retail outlets.
Its logic is simple: directly print the proportion of three-year grain-based base liquor on the bottle label, so consumers can see at a glance whether this bottle is worth the price. It doesn’t sell cheapness – it sells transparency and fairness. This precisely taps into the second principle.
The rise of low-alcohol baijiu is equally noteworthy.
The low-alcohol liquor market is projected to exceed RMB 74 billion in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 25% – five times the overall growth rate of the baijiu industry. After Jiangxiaobai’s parent company transformed into “Bottle Planet,” its sales revenue grew 25% year-on-year from January to July 2025, maintaining 19 consecutive months of steady growth, with its core SKU Guoli growing by 80%.
What young consumers want is “pleasing oneself” – a quiet drink alone, a light buzz with friends, a relaxed moment without the pressure of drinking games. This is the classic first principle – being good to oneself.
The iteration of the “taproom+” model taps into the compensation logic of emotional repair.
Tang Sanliang Taproom focuses on full-category bulk liquor with community penetration. In March 2025, it completed a nearly RMB 10 million angel round, with stores now covering Chengdu, Chongqing, Guangzhou, and other cities. Fresh Beer Fulujia signed 1,607 new stores in 2025, reaching a total of 1,808 stores across over 300 cities nationwide, bringing craft beer back to “daily staple” status at RMB 6–10 per cup.
Tang Sanliang sells “the warmth of home, the small happiness of tipsiness”; Fresh Beer Fulujia offers “6 yuan of brief relaxation.” This is essentially the same psychology as 7-Eleven’s premium rice ball that sold brilliantly despite being 60% more expensive – save on the big things, regain dignity on the small things.
Traditional premium brands are also actively responding to these two principles.
From Wuliangye to Fenjiu, to Luzhou Laojiao and Gujing Gongjiu, all have launched “food + liquor” formats, expanding baijiu from banquet tables into “light social” experiential scenarios. Luzhou Laojiao launched the “Baidiao” series, focusing on low alcohol, easy drinking, and multi-scenario application. Shede Liquor cross-branded with Chinese National Geography, anchoring the emotional value of “poetry, wine, and the open road.”
Data shows that the proportion of baijiu consumption in lightweight scenarios such as home drinking and solo camping has climbed from 35% in 2020 to 58% in 2025, surpassing traditional social scenarios for the first time.
These are not accidental trends – they are the replay of Japan-validated category principles in the baijiu market.
Explained through self-consistency theory: when consumers define themselves as “rational,” “healthy,” and “self-pleasing,” the transparent pricing of bottled baijiu, the relaxed experience of low-alcohol products, and the emotional value of scenario-based consumption resonate with this self-perception. This cannot be solved by marketing rhetoric – it requires deep alignment between product logic and consumer psychology.
Distributors’ Product-Selection Logic Must Be Rewritten
Historically, distributors selected products based on three core criteria: big enough brand, thick enough margins, good enough policies. This logic worked perfectly in the “channel is king” era. But today, aside from Feitian Moutai, almost all baijiu brands have experienced price inversions to varying degrees – the spread-profit model is collapsing.
The new product-selection logic should centre on one core question: why does the consumer think this product is “worth it”?
Based on the thirty years of Japan’s experience and observations of today’s Chinese baijiu market, we have distilled five selection principles for distributors:
Principle 1: Look at whether the product responds to consumers’ “worthiness” question.
Consumers now ask three questions before buying anything: do I really need it? Why is it worth more than others? What can it bring me? If the product cannot answer, it has no reason to survive. Guangliang answered “why” with a data bottle – ingredient transparency at a glance. Low-alcohol liquor answered “what it brings” with drinkability and a sense of ease – not intoxication, but pleasure.
Principle 2: Look at whether the product is “active-purchase” or “passive-push.”
Active-purchase products are characterised by consumers actively searching, inquiring, and repurchasing. These products become more stable in weak economies. Passive-push products rely on channel force – distribution, promotion, inventory loading – and the moment that force weakens, sell-through disappears. In the stock-market competition era, the latter’s survival space is rapidly narrowing.
Principle 3: Look at whether the product taps into at least one of the two principles – “good for oneself” or “fair to oneself.”
Bottled baijiu taps the “fairness” logic – stripping excessive packaging and putting the cost into the liquor itself. Low-alcohol and scenario-based products tap the “good for oneself” logic – drink a bit less, drink more comfortably, drink more happily. Either principle alone provides the foundation to transcend market cycles.
Principle 4: Look at whether the brand continuously iterates its products.
Suntory’s oolong tea has sold for over forty years, updating its packaging and flavours every two years. A product that never iterates will eventually bore consumers. Consumers change, scenarios change – products that don’t evolve will be left behind. Brands that continuously invest in lower alcohol, lighter formats, and scenario-based offerings deserve more attention than those resting on past laurels.
Principle 5: Look at whether the manufacturer is shifting from “channel thinking” to “consumer thinking.”
This is the most important principle – and the most easily overlooked. In the past, manufacturers cared about “how much was pushed” and “how many distributors were opened.” Today, they should care about “opening rate,” “repurchase rate,” and “consumer profile.” At its 2025 Global Distributor Conference, Fenjiu explicitly stated that the second phase of its revival programme focuses on “co-creating the future with consumers.” Gu Xiaojiao, through its AI digital system, shares C-end consumption data with distributors – no inventory loading, emphasis on sell-through. Brands still using old mindsets to approach the market, no matter how much noise they make today, may be quietly abandoned by consumers tomorrow.
During Japan’s lost decades, consumers never stopped spending. They just stopped paying for things that weren’t worth it.
The challenge facing China’s baijiu industry today is not consumption contraction – the low-alcohol liquor market is set to exceed RMB 74 billion in 2025, and bottled baijiu is set to exceed RMB 200 billion. These numbers speak for themselves. The question is: how many products in your portfolio are truly worth consumers’ choice?
The industry adjustment will not end anytime soon. But for distributors who understand the shift in consumption logic, this is not a winter – it is a reshuffling, and an opportunity to reposition.
The logic of product selection has already been rewritten. Those who understand it first get on board first.
(This article is compiled from publicly available industry information.)
Sources:
[1] Huanqiu.com Consumer Report, Production Declines for Nine Consecutive Years! Baijiu Enterprises Invest Heavily in Expansion Against the Trend, https://finance.sina.com.cn
[2] 10jqka Finance, Q3 Reports Show Baijiu Industry Remains Under Pressure, https://stock.10jqka.com.cn
[3] China.com, Baijiu Must Face This Directly, https://3g.china.com
[4] China Wealth, The “Breaking” and “Establishing” of Consumption Scenarios, https://finance.china.com
[5] 36Kr, Guangliang’s Zhao Xiaopu: Sold 400 Million Bottles of Baijiu in 5 Years, I Just Didn’t Fall into the Smart People’s Trap, https://m.36kr.com
[6] Eastmoney.com, 19 Months of Consecutive Growth Against the Trend, Single SKU Up 80% – How Bottle Planet Became a Leader in Low-Alcohol New Beverages, https://caifuhao.eastmoney.com
[7] Catering O2O, Tang Sanliang Taproom Completes Nearly RMB 10 Million Angel Round – The New Collision of Community and Extreme Value-for-Money, https://www.canyin88.com
[8] Beijing Business Today, Mixue Bingcheng Acquires 53% Stake in Fresh Beer Fulujia for RMB 297 Million, https://www.bbtnews.com.cn
[9] China Wealth, Baijiu Enterprises Target the Bottled Baijiu Track – Market Size Expected to Exceed RMB 200 Billion in 2025, https://finance.china.com.cn
[10] Eastmoney.com, China’s Liquor Industry Enters Deep Adjustment – Where Do New Development Trends Point? https://finance.eastmoney.com
[11] China Wine News, Fenjiu Opens Its First “Old Workshop Tavern,” https://www.cnwinenews.com
[12] Stockstar, Luzhou Laojiao: Baidiao Series Mainly Targets Young Consumers, https://stock.stockstar.com
[13] Caijing.com, Tipsy TALK | Gu Xiaojiao’s Liu Fei: Covered Over 200,000 Terminals in 1.5 Years Offline – AI-Driven Bottled Baijiu Grows Over 500% in First 3 Quarters, https://m.caijing.com.cn
[14] KPMG: 2025 China Baijiu Market Mid-Year Research Report, https://d.drcnet.com.cn
[15] China Wealth, Frequent Low-Alcohol Launches – Baijiu Enterprises Embrace “Consumer-Driven” Growth, https://finance.china.com.cn
原创文章版权归本网所有；转载文章归原作者所有。发布者：酒业时报，转载请注明出处：https://www.thewinetimes.com/deep/11742
